Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework
نویسندگان
چکیده
We generalize the results of Satopää et al. (2014, 2015) by showing how the Gaussian aggregator may be computed in a setting where parameter estimation is not required. We proceed to provide an explicit formula for a “one-shot” aggregation problem with two forecasters.
منابع مشابه
Learning of Optimal Forecast Aggregation in Partial Evidence Environments
We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely they share a common prior, each expert is exposed to some evidence, and each...
متن کاملPartial Information Framework: Basic Theory and Applications
PARTIAL INFORMATION FRAMEWORK: BASIC THEORY AND APPLICATIONS Ville A. Satopää Shane T. Jensen Lyle H. Ungar Many real-world decisions depend on accurate predictions of some future outcome. In such cases the decision-maker often seeks to consult multiple people or/and models for their forecasts. These forecasts are then aggregated into a consensus that is inputted in the final decision-making pr...
متن کاملA New Hybrid Framework for Filter based Feature Selection using Information Gain and Symmetric Uncertainty (TECHNICAL NOTE)
Feature selection is a pre-processing technique used for eliminating the irrelevant and redundant features which results in enhancing the performance of the classifiers. When a dataset contains more irrelevant and redundant features, it fails to increase the accuracy and also reduces the performance of the classifiers. To avoid them, this paper presents a new hybrid feature selection method usi...
متن کاملJoint Bayesian Stochastic Inversion of Well Logs and Seismic Data for Volumetric Uncertainty Analysis
Here in, an application of a new seismic inversion algorithm in one of Iran’s oilfields is described. Stochastic (geostatistical) seismic inversion, as a complementary method to deterministic inversion, is perceived as contribution combination of geostatistics and seismic inversion algorithm. This method integrates information from different data sources with different scales, as prior informat...
متن کاملPartial Fractionation of Venoms from Two Iranian Vipers, Echis carinatus and Cerastes persicus Fieldi and Evaluation of Their Antiplatelet Activity
Platelet aggregation inhibitory effect and anticoagulant properties of fractions separated from the venoms of Cerastes persicus fieldi and Echis carinatus were investigated. The partial fractionation was performed on a Sephadex G-100 column. Two fractions separated from Cerastes persicus fieldi showed anti platelet aggregation activity on ADP (200 µM)-induced platelet aggregation (ca 80% inhibi...
متن کامل